Firmus withdrew its $7 billion ASX float on Friday after investors refused a $43.7 billion valuation, the biggest listing in 30 years undone in a week. The US 10 year Treasury yield touched 5.36%, its highest since 2002, and private credit funds closed their doors to redemptions. This ASX market update October 2026 looks at a week in which every asset class was asked to justify its price.
Global markets
The US 10 year yield reached 5.36% on Wednesday before a well bid 30 year auction pulled it back. On Thursday a report that OpenAI’s revenue run rate sits well below what investors had been told took 1.25% off the Nasdaq as chip and AI names were sold. Friday reversed it. With third quarter earnings season beginning and President Trump saying the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, all three US indices closed the week higher.
| US Markets | % Change | Rest of the World | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Dow Jones | +0.9% | STOXX Europe 600 | 0.0% |
| S&P 500 | +1.1% | Hang Seng | -0.8% |
| Nasdaq | +0.6% | Nikkei 225 | +1.1% |
The S&P 500 finished at 7,811.54, the Dow at 51,654.95 and the Nasdaq at 27,366.17. Europe finished flat at 631.55, but only after bond selling spread from France to Italy and Greece and pushed the STOXX 600 to its lowest close since June. The Hang Seng fell 0.8% as mainland China returned from Golden Week, while the Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% after closing above 70,000 on Tuesday.
Brent finished at US$104.43 a barrel as Hurricane Isaias shut in close to two thirds of Gulf of Mexico output, despite a G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels. Gold closed at US$4,193 an ounce.
The ASX
The ASX 200 closed at 8,716.6, up 0.4% and a second consecutive weekly gain. It rose to 8,735.7 by Tuesday, fell 0.8% on Thursday as miners and banks sold off and the Firmus float came apart, then gained 0.64% on Friday. Real estate led, with the A-REIT index up 3.73% for the week, while lithium, uranium and the stocks most exposed to the data centre build were sold.
| Best 3 Movers | % Change | Worst 3 Movers | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARF | +16.3% | WBT | -25.9% |
| DMP | +12.3% | ELS | -22.4% |
| TLC | +6.8% | SRL | -18.7% |
Source: IRESS.
Arena REIT led after disclosing that Goodstart Early Learning has conditionally agreed to buy 31 Edge Early Learning centres, including 20 of the 27 Edge-leased sites Arena owns. Domino’s Pizza and Lottery Corporation rose as consumer discretionary stocks rebounded from a 16% sell off between August and late September. Weebit Nano, Elsight and Sunrise Energy Metals were the weakest, with defence technology names sold through the week.
The Reserve Bank did not meet; the cash rate is 4.60%. Consumer sentiment fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October, and responses collected after the 29 September rise fell to 67.2, a level last seen in a full survey during the early 1990s recession. Markets price about a 30% chance of another rise on 3 November.
ASX market update October 2026: beyond the index
Bonds. The US 10 year cleared a US$39 billion auction at 5.30% and the 30 year a US$22 billion auction at 5.62%. Governor Waller and St Louis Fed President Musalem said more rises are likely but need not come at the 27 and 28 October meeting. At home the 10 year closed at 5.36% and the three year at 4.93%.
Private credit. The New York Fed is reviewing bank lending to private credit funds, now above US$1.5 trillion. Metrics Master Income Trust resumed trading with NTA down 2% to $1.96 and its underlying funds closed to redemptions, and ASIC placed interim stop orders on three Australian Secure Capital Fund products.
New listings and private equity. Firmus will now raise privately. In the US, DayOne Data Centers filed for an estimated US$3 billion listing. Blackstone sold Clarion to Informa for US$3.0 billion, and in Australia Ingenia opened its books to Warburg Pincus on a $5.25 a share proposal.
Commercial real estate. US commercial mortgage backed securities delinquency reached 8.02% in September, the highest since late 2020, with office at 12.16%.
A compelling story is not a compelling valuation
Last week we noted that Firmus was opening its books at $11 a share. On Friday it withdrew. The story was never the problem; the price was, and the investors asked to pay it said so plainly.
That describes the whole week. When a US government bond pays more than 5%, every other asset has to clear a higher bar, and investors are now enforcing it: on a $44 billion float, in private credit where redemptions are being gated and regulators are asking questions, and in US commercial property where delinquencies are back to 2020 levels.
None of this is a crisis. It is risk being repriced after a long period in which capital was cheap and plentiful. The assets most exposed are the ones priced for that world: long duration growth, opaque loan books and leveraged property. Shares held up this week, but the bar that turned away Firmus applies to every holding.
The discipline I would take from the week is simple. Know what you own, how it is valued and how you would exit. Where an investment cannot answer those three questions clearly, the yield on offer needs to be well above 5% to justify it. Where it can, a defined downside is worth more now than it was a year ago, which is the thinking behind our latest structured investment and our explainer on how growth structured investments work.
Book a strategy call at barkerwealth.com.au to review how your portfolio is positioned against a higher bar for capital.
This commentary is intended for general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. You should consider your own objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decisions. Target returns are not indicative or guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All market data refers to the week ending Friday 9 October 2026. Barker Wealth Management Pty Ltd ABN 46 695 875 962, trading as Barker Wealth, holds Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) 700297. Your adviser is Joshua Barker (AR 1274752).