Global equity markets ended the week to Friday 10 July mixed. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude up roughly 4.7% to near US$76 a barrel, yet Wall Street still closed higher for the fourth week in five. At home, the ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 8,806. This ASX market update for July 2026 covers the week’s global moves, the local market, and the number that now matters most.
Global markets
The S&P 500 closed at 7,575, up more than 1% for the week, and the Nasdaq gained a similar margin. The Dow fell 0.5%. The standout event was SK Hynix’s Wall Street debut, which raised US$26.5 billion, the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, and a reminder that capital continues to queue for quality technology exposure even in an unsettled tape.
The divergence outside the US was stark. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose around 4% in its strongest week in months as investors rotated into Chinese internet names. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.7%, weighed down by the country’s reliance on imported energy, and the Euro Stoxx 50 lost around 2% despite a Friday rebound.
Oil is the connective tissue. The Strait of Hormuz carries around 20% of the world’s oil and gas trade, and observed tanker traffic slowed sharply through the week as the ceasefire strained. That keeps a risk premium in energy prices, and by extension in every inflation forecast that matters to rate policy.
| US markets | % change | Rest of the world | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Dow Jones | -0.5% | ASX200 | -0.4% |
| S&P 500 | +1.0% | Hang Seng | +4.0% |
| Nasdaq | +1.0% | Nikkei 225 | -1.7% |
Weekly % change, week ending Friday 10 July 2026.
The ASX
The ASX 200 closed at 8,806, down 0.4% for the week, giving back the prior week’s gains. The early pressure came from two directions: Middle East headlines, and the IMF’s downgrade of Australia’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.9%, paired with a warning that inflation is likely to stay near 4% this year.
Friday brought relief. A 2.3% rally in Materials, led by BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue on firmer iron ore and copper prices, snapped a four session losing streak and lifted the index back above 8,800.
| Top 3 movers | % change | Bottom 3 movers | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSB | +8.7% | ELV | -16.1% |
| STO | +7.3% | EOS | -17.1% |
| FBU | +7.2% | MI6 | -18.4% |
Weekly % change, week ending Friday 10 July 2026. Source: IRESS.
The RBA left the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting, after three hikes this year. The 29 July quarterly CPI print is now the only major data point standing between here and the 11 August decision.
Why the 29 July CPI print matters more than the ceasefire
The market spent this week doing what it has done all year: repricing risk in real time, then moving on. A strained ceasefire, tanker traffic through Hormuz slowing to a crawl, Brent back near US$76, and the S&P 500 still closed out another winning week. I do not read that as complacency. It is a market that has learned to distinguish between headline risk and earnings risk, at least for now.
Closer to home, the picture is less forgiving. The IMF’s growth downgrade, set against inflation forecast to hold near 4%, describes an uncomfortable combination: a slowing economy that has not yet earned rate relief. The RBA has hiked three times this year and is sitting at 4.35% waiting on one number. If the trimmed mean comes in hot on 29 July, a fourth hike in August becomes the base case. If it softens, the conversation changes entirely. Either way, that print will move portfolios more than any ceasefire headline this month.
For investors, the lesson of the week is about income. When equity markets are hostage to a shipping lane, portfolios built on contracted, asset backed income streams do not need to guess the next headline. That is the thinking behind our institutional-grade income investments, and it is also why structure matters as much as selection: as we covered in our recent piece on consolidating complex portfolios, clarity across your holdings is what makes disciplined positioning possible.
Positioning, not prediction, is what carries portfolios through weeks like this one.
If this week raised questions about your own positioning, book a strategy call at barkerwealth.com.au. We work with wholesale and sophisticated investors seeking institutional-grade access.