Welcome to Barker Wealth’s ASX market update for July 2026, covering the week ending Friday 3 July. The ASX 200 closed the week at 8,844, up 0.9%, while US equities rallied into the Independence Day break on softer payrolls data. Brent crude settled near US$69 a barrel, back at levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February.
Global markets
US markets rose across the board in a holiday-shortened week, closing Thursday ahead of the long weekend. The S&P 500 gained 1.8%, the Nasdaq added 2.1% and the Dow rose 2.0% to finish at 52,844. The catalyst was a softer than expected June payrolls print, which shifted rate expectations, revived hopes of easier policy and sent gold sharply higher.
| US Markets | % Change | Rest of the World | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Dow Jones | +2.0% | ASX200 | +0.9% |
| S&P 500 | +1.8% | Hang Seng | +1.7% |
| Nasdaq | +2.1% | Euro Stoxx 50 | +2.3% |
Energy supply is doing much of the heavy lifting behind the calm. The UAE has restored exports above 3.9 million barrels daily, Strait of Hormuz flows have recovered past 10 million barrels a day, and a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has steadied supply confidence. Europe posted its strongest week in about a month, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.3% on an improving macro backdrop. Hong Kong advanced 1.7%, supported by technology and financial names.
ASX market update: July 2026 begins with a broad advance
The local market finished the week strongly, surging 1.4% on Friday to close at 8,844, a one-week high after treading water midweek. Gold miners were the story of the session, jumping 7.9% as bullion rallied on the softer US payrolls data. Consumer durables, healthcare and non-energy minerals led the broader advance.
| Top 3 Movers | % Change | Bottom 3 Movers | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEU | +37.2% | PXA | -16.4% |
| PPT | +25.0% | MI6 | -10.6% |
| GDG | +20.5% | SGM | -10.2% |
On policy, the RBA left the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting after three hikes earlier this year. The Board next meets on 11 August. May headline inflation eased to 4.0%, though the trimmed mean rose to 3.6%, its highest reading since September 2024. That divergence matters, and we return to it below.
Why a calm week is not a resolved picture
A calm week is not the same as a resolved macro picture, and this week was a useful reminder of the difference.
Oil is back where it sat before the February conflict began, and equity markets have taken that as permission to move on. Fair enough, to a point. Supply through Hormuz has genuinely recovered, and the diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran represents real progress. But the speed of the round trip in energy prices says as much about positioning as it does about fundamentals. Markets were braced for a supply shock that never fully arrived, and the unwind has been swift. When prices travel that far, that fast, in both directions, the honest conclusion is that conviction is thin.
Closer to home, the inflation data deserves more attention than it received. Headline CPI easing to 4.0% is welcome. The trimmed mean rising to 3.6%, its highest since September 2024, is not. The RBA has tightened three times this year and the underlying pulse of inflation is still firming. That tension will define the August meeting, and I would be cautious about assuming the cycle is finished simply because the Board paused in June.
For investors, the discipline remains unchanged. Hold assets that can carry a higher-for-longer rate environment. Favour income streams backed by real assets and genuine covenants over rallies built on relief. Our approach to institutional-grade investments is built for exactly this kind of environment, and you can read prior weeks’ commentary in our Insights archive.
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