It is rare for three market forces to arrive in the same week. In this ASX market update July 2026, oil settled above US$100 for the first time since May, the United States confirmed new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners including Australia, and Wall Street began asking hard questions of Big Tech’s AI spend. Joshua Barker joined The Open on ausbiz this morning to walk through all three.
The AI spend is finally being questioned
The Nasdaq fell more than 2% overnight as earnings from the largest technology companies revived concerns about the scale of AI investment. Alphabet delivered a cloud revenue beat but lifted its spending outlook and reported negative cash flow, sending shares down 7%. Tesla fared worse, tumbling 14.5% in its biggest one-day fall in more than a year after a second-quarter earnings miss in which operating expenses grew faster than revenue.
The numbers involved are extraordinary. Microsoft alone plans roughly US$200bn of capital expenditure in 2026. For two years the market rewarded that spending as a statement of intent. This week marked a change of tone: investors now want evidence the capex becomes revenue.
Our view is more constructive than the price action suggests. Someone has to build the AI infrastructure, and the largest technology companies are the best capitalised in history to do it. The repricing is a question of patience, not of demand. There were bright spots overnight to support that: Intel guided above expectations and rose 12% after the bell, and Blackstone beat on income partly by harvesting profits from its AI-linked investments.
Oil above US$100, and why uranium may be next
Missile strikes on tankers off Saudi Arabia extended Middle East shipping disruptions into the Red Sea, and crude settled above US$100 for the first time since May. Goldman Sachs now sees Brent potentially exceeding US$120 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and averaging US$100 next year, if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027.
Higher oil is uncomfortable for equities broadly, but it is also a reminder that energy security has become national security. Oil has already moved on the conflict. We see uranium as a potential next mover: supply remains tight, Western governments are re-committing to nuclear capacity, and the geopolitics of this month have only strengthened that case. We remain positive on the thematic over the long term.
Rates are repricing on both sides of the Pacific
Fed funds futures now price a more than 80% chance of a US rate hike in September, up from 52% a week ago. Australia is in a similar position: the labour market remains tight, and the RBA faces the same pressure. Two central banks leaning towards hikes is not a friendly backdrop for equities, and ASX futures pointed to a 0.5% fall at the open, with a 12.5% US tariff on Australian exports adding to the headwinds. Locally, attention now turns to earnings from Newmont and a quarterly update from Regis Resources.
Reading the week beyond the headlines
When everything happens at once, the discipline is to separate what is noise from what changes the investment case. Tariff headlines will come and go, and a single quarter of tech earnings does not resolve the AI question either way.
What I watch is where capital must flow regardless of sentiment. The AI build-out continues because the largest companies in the world have committed to it, and every scenario for that build-out requires more energy. That is why we keep returning to the uranium thematic, and why weeks like this one, uncomfortable as they are, tend to create the entry points that patient investors remember fondly.
If your portfolio is concentrated in the handful of US names that have driven index returns for two years, this is a sensible moment to review that exposure. You can read our ongoing commentary at barkerwealth.com.au/insights.
Markets like these reward preparation over prediction. Book a strategy call at barkerwealth.com.au to discuss what this week means for your portfolio.
This commentary is intended for general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. You should consider your own objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decisions. Barker Wealth Management Pty Ltd ABN 46 695 875 962, trading as Barker Wealth, holds Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) 700297. Your adviser is Joshua Barker (AR 1274752)